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10.07.2013 12:15

European session: The Japanese yen has increased significantly


00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence July 102.2 102.1

02:00 China Trade Balance, bln June 20.4 27.8 27.1

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence June 45.7 47.2 44.3

06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) June +0.1% +0.1% +0.1%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) June +1.8% +1.8% +1.9%

06:45 France Industrial Production, m/m May +2.2% -0.5% -0.4%

06:45 France Industrial Production, y/y May -0.5% -0.1% 0.4%

07:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

The euro exchange rate against the dollar has increased markedly, restored with more than half of the positions lost yesterday. Note that the strengthening currency helped to reports in Germany and France.

As shown by the final data, which were presented by the Federal Statistical Office, at the end of last month inflation accelerated again in Germany, which was the second consecutive monthly increase, which primarily was due to higher prices for food and energy. Meanwhile, add that with the last reading level inflation reached its highest level since December 2012.

According to a report on the results of the month of June, consumer prices rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis, and rose by 1.8% over the year, which is fully consistent with the preliminary estimates and forecasts of experts. For comparison, in April, the annual inflation rate was 1.2%.

Commenting on the data presented, the Federal Statistical Office reported that inflation in June was due to rising food and energy prices against the decision of the German government to abandon fossil hydrocarbon and nuclear power. Note that food prices jumped by 5.4% from June 2012, while energy costs increased 3.0%. It is assumed that the increase in food inflation will continue in the coming months.

For France, the data from the Statistical Office Insee showed that up to May, the volume of French industrial production fell by less than many economists had forecast, which partly helped increase production of cars and electricity.

According to a report in the May monthly basis, the volume of industrial production decreased by 0.4%, which was followed after increasing by 2.2% in April. We also add that the annualized value of this indicator increased by 0.4%, almost blocking the decline of 0.5% recorded in the previous month. Experts estimate the volume of production to be reduced by 0.5% on a monthly basis, and will decrease by 0.1% per year.

The yen rose significantly against most major currencies as signs of recovery in the Japanese economy reduces the prospects that the central bank soften its monetary policy this year. Also, the currency's associated with the start of a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan. Most economists believe that the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda manager and his colleagues will not expand incentive programs. It is expected that the bankers will discuss the situation in the markets, and, according to rumors, a reassessment of the country's economic growth upwards.

Also helped to strengthen the currency report on China. According to published data, the volume of exports in June fell by 3.1% compared with the same period last year, after the lackluster growth in May, up 1% compared to May 2012. Result for June was significantly worse than expected export increase by an amount slightly greater than 3%.

Weak export completes a series of disappointing indicators of the Chinese economy. However, in a report released Wednesday morning, a statement by Prime Minister Li Keqiang pointed out that the current level of growth is within the acceptable range.

"As long as the rate of economic growth, employment and other indicators do not fall below our minimum limit, and inflation does not exceed the upper limit, we will focus on restructuring and promoting reform," - said Lee.

China's export sector is suffering under the weight of rising wages and a strong yuan, to the detriment of competitiveness, as well as sluggish demand from major trading partners - the U.S. and Europe.

Imports fell in June by 0.7% compared to the same period last year, against a decline of 0.3% in May, indicating that weak domestic demand in the Chinese economy. Value of the index for June is also not in line with expectations of economists, who had forecast an increase in imports by 5.5%.

The positive balance of foreign trade of China in June rose to 27.13 billion dollars against 20.43 billion dollars in May.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2835

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.4920

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.73

At 14:30 GMT the United States will announce the reserves of crude oil from the Ministry of Energy. At 17:00 GMT the United States places the 10-year bonds. At 18:00 GMT the United States will be publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting in June. At 22:30 GMT New Zealand will release the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Business NZ in June. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on changes in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment for May.

10.07.2013 12:01


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