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03.07.2013 06:24

Asian session: The Dollar Index rose

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m May +3.9% +1.6%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May +0.2% +0.4% +0.1%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +3.1% +2.3%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance May 0.03 0.05 0.67

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI June 51.2 51.3


The Dollar Index rose to the highest level in a month before a report forecast to show companies in the U.S. added more jobs in June. Companies in the U.S. added 160,000 workers last month after increasing positions by 135,000 in May, analysts in a Bloomberg poll predicted before a report today by the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute.

The dollar traded near the strongest in a month versus the euro before data that may show service industries expanded at the fastest pace since March. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index climbed to 54 last month from 53.7 in May, a report from the Tempe, Arizona-based group is predicted to show today, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the industries that make up almost 90 percent of the economy.

New York Fed President William C. Dudley said yesterday economic growth will probably quicken in 2014, possibly warranting a reduction in the central bank's bond-purchase program, which currently stands at $85 billion a month.

Europe's shared currency weakened against most of its 16 major counterparts before the European Central Bank meets tomorrow. The ECB will keep its main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.5 percent on July 4, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. Policy "will stay accommodative for the foreseeable future," President Mario Draghi said in Paris on June 26.

Australia's currency declined to its lowest in more than two years after RBA Governor Stevens said the downward phase of the resource investment boom in his country "appears likely to pose significant challenges."


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2965/85

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5140/60

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range Y100.45/85


There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with some US data releases pushed forward by 24 hours ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Thursday. The European calendar gets underway with a string of service sector survey data, starting at 0713GMT with the release of the Spanish June service sector PMI numbers. At 0730GMT, Sweden's Riksbank releases the June Monetary Policy Report. More service sector PMI numbers come through at 0743GMT when Italian numbers cross the wires, followed by French data at 0748GMT, German at 0753GMT and the collated EMU data at 0758GMT. Economists are looking for a tick up across the data following the slightly better than expected manufacturing numbers seen earlier in the week. There is further EMU data set for release at 0900GMT when the May retail sales data will cross the wires. EC Jose Manuel is scheduled to attend the Youth Unemployment Summit, in Berlin, from 1000GMT. Back in Europe, Buba Board member Joachim Nagel speech on internationalising the renminbi, in Frankfurt from 1240GMT. Angela Merkel will give a press conference after the European conference on youth unemployment, in Berlin from 1515GMT.

Market Focus

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  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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