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01.07.2013 06:01

Asian session: The dollar gained

00:00 China Leading Index May 99.8 99.60

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI June 50.8 50.1 50.1

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) June 48.3 48.3 48.2


The dollar gained for a third day to its strongest in more than three weeks versus the yen before a U.S. report forecast to show manufacturing rebounded, adding to signs the Federal Reserve may begin to trim bond purchases. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index for the U.S. probably rose to 50.5 in June from 49, which was the lowest since June 2009, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey before today's report. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The yen fell versus its major peers as data showed large Japanese manufacturers were the most optimistic in two years, reducing haven demand. The Bank of Japan's Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers was plus 4 in the second quarter, the highest reading since March 2011, from minus 8 in the prior period, according to a statement from the central bank. A positive number means optimists outnumber pessimists.

The euro was near its weakest in a month before a European Central Bank meeting July 4, with President Mario Draghi signaling policy will remain stimulative. The ECB's monetary policy "will stay accommodative for the foreseeable future," Draghi said June 26. "We have an open mind about all other possible instruments that we may consider proper to adopt."

Australia's dollar rose from the least since September 2010 on bets its central bank won't cut interest rates tomorrow. There is a 24 percent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark interest rate to 2.5 percent from 2.75 percent tomorrow, according to Bloomberg calculations based on swaps.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around $ 1.3020

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair is trading around $ 1.5200

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair the pair traded in the range of Y99.15/55


There is a full calendar Monday, with data releases on both sides of the week. However, the real standout events come later in the week with the RBA, BOE and ECB policy meets. Also, the US Jobs report is expected Friday, coming the day after the Independence Day holiday. Early data Monday sees the release of the final manufacturing PMI numbers in Europe. At 0713GMT, the Spanish numbers are expected, followed at 0743GMT by Italy, France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the eurozone combined data at 0758GMT. Final June PMIs are expected to confirm the impression of an economic bloc still firmly in recession, but with the pace of contraction at least becoming less eye watering. Further eurozone data is expected at 0900GMT, with the release of the May unemployment numbers, expected to show a rise to a fresh record high at 12.3%, up from 12.2% in April.

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