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29.04.2013 06:02

Asian session: The Dollar Index fell

00:00 China Bank holiday

00:00 Japan Bank holiday

The Dollar Index fell before U.S. data today forecast to show consumer spending stagnated last month, boosting bets the Federal Reserve will renew its commitment to its bond-buying program at a meeting this week. U.S. consumer spending was probably unchanged in March from February when it increased 0.7 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report showed last week that U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, compared with the 3 percent gain estimated by economists and a 0.4 percent advance in the fourth quarter.

A government report showed on April 26 that the U.S. economy expanded less than forecast in the first quarter, helping Treasury yields extend their monthly decline toward the steepest since May.

The yen advanced against all major peers including the Australian and New Zealand dollars after a Chinese report showed slowing profit growth in industrial companies, supporting demand for refuge assets. Net income at industrial companies in China, the biggest trading partner for Australia and New Zealand, increased 5.3 percent in March from a year earlier, compared with a 17.2 percent pace in the first two months, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website on April 27.

The euro extended its slide to a sixth day against the pound, the longest run of declines in a year. The median estimate of economists shows the European Central Bank will cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points from the current all-time low of 0.75 percent at its May 2 meeting.

Japanese markets are closed today and on May 3 for holidays, while those in China are shut for three days starting today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $1.3030-60

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.5525

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.35

There is little in the way of an overnight lead from Asia on Monday, with both China and Japan closed for national holidays. However, there is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic. German April flash HICP numbers are due for release, although there is no scheduled time for release. Flash HICP inflation data should ease any Germanic qualms about the inflationary risks of a rate cut, given recent falls in crude and commodity prices. Analysts are looking for a number of -0.1% m/m and 1.7% on year. Spanish flash HICP numbers are expected at 0700GMT, along with the release of the Spanish March retail sales numbers.At 0730GMT, the Swedish Riksbank monetary policy minutes from the April meet will cross the wires. The Italian Apr ISTAT business survey numbers will be released at 0800GMT. At 0830GMT, the German Export and Wholesale Association will release their export forecasts, in Berlin. Eurozone April consumer confidence and business climate indicator numbers are due at 0900GMT, ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen is slated to speak at the International Institute of Finance meeting in Berlin.

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