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18.04.2013 12:13

European session: the euro is recovering after yesterday's fall


01:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter I -5 +2

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) March +2.1% -0.3% -0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) March +2.6% -0.4% -0.5%

09:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Fritz Zurbrugg Speaks

The dollar fell after the data that the yield on 5-year bonds of France noted a record low 0.73%. We also note that today Spain held an auction for 3 -, 5 - and 10-year government bonds and was able to draw on its results E4.71 billion, exceeding the target range of 3.5-3.5 billion were sold during the auction of 3-year bonds worth E1.38 billion, and the average yield was 2.792% against 3.019% in the previous auction. 5-year bonds were sold at E2.043 billion, with an average yield of 3.257% vs. prev. 3.598%. Finally, the yield of securities maturing in January 2033 amounted to 4.612% against prev. 4.898%.

Also on this momentum trading has affected the annual report, which was presented today by international agency Moody 's Investors Service, and showed that Germany's sovereign rating unchanged - at' AAA ', facilitated by a highly competitive economy and a high level of investor confidence. In its annual credit report, Moody 's said that the sovereign rating at «AAA», albeit with a "negative" outlook is based on an advanced, diversified and highly competitive economy and a great track record of macroeconomic stability policy. In addition, it was noted that Germany enjoys a high level of investor confidence, which is reflected in the very low cost of debt financing.

Although Germany's debt remained high at around 80 per cent of the gross domestic product during the global financial crisis and the debt crisis in the eurozone, it was much lower than had been reported in many other major countries.

Meanwhile, the agency noted that the low cost of funding in Germany will ensure that its high level of debt and interest expense remains available.

We also note that today's leading economic institutes in Germany even more lowered their forecast for GDP in 2013 to Europe's largest economy. However, they stated that in 2014 the economic growth of more than double to 1.9% due to the revival of international trade and investment recovery company.

The pound fell to a one-month low against the euro after the data from the Office for National Statistics showed that by the end of last month, the volume of retail sales in the UK fell markedly, which is evidence of pressure on the finances of consumers, which jeopardizes the prospects for sustainable, long-term economic recovery. In addition, it was reported that the volume of sales, however, increased in the first quarter of this year, thanks to strong performance in February and no increase store sales. Economists point out that these data support the tentative signs that the UK can avoid a return to recession for the third time in five years.

According to the report, in March retail sales fell by 0.7% compared to February and were up 0.5% compared with the same month a year earlier. Note that according to the average estimates of experts, the value of this index was reduced by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, it was reported that the annual sales for the previous month was revised down to 2.5% growth, compared to the initial estimate of 2.6% increase.

The yen fell against most major currencies against the measures taken to mitigate the monetary policies adopted by the Bank of Japan, which continue to put pressure on the Japanese yen. Today begins a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors G20. This is the first meeting since then, such as Japan, the third largest economy in the world, has activated a program to combat deflation. Japan is preparing to respond to criticism from foreign colleagues. Also today, the data released in Japan on the deficit of the trade balance. In March, 2013. the figure was $ 3.7 billion, which is almost two times less than in February of this year. However, the March trade deficit means that the level of imports in Japan than exports ninth month in a row, which is the longest period since 1980. For the year exports to the U.S. increased by 7%, while in China, by contrast, fell by 2.5%. It is worth noting that experts suggest that the level of Japanese exports will increase in the coming months due to the devaluation of the yen against the background of large-scale injections into the economy by the Bank of Japan.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3073, but later dropped to $ 1.3045

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.5217, after which rose to $ 1.5274

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y98.54

At 12:30 GMT the United States, there are data on initial claims for unemployment benefits last April. At 14:00 GMT the United States will be represented by the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for April. At 15:00 GMT will begin meeting G20, as well as the head of the Bank of Canada's Carney make a speech. At 16:00 GMT we planned a member of the Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve C. Raskin.

18.04.2013 12:00


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