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21.03.2013 12:20

European session: British pound rose sharply


00:30 Australia RBA Bulletin Quarter I

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 50.4 51.2 51.7

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January +1.8% -1.1% -1.4%

07:00 Switzerland Trade Balance February 2.13 1.87 2.10

08:00 France Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 43.9 44.4 43.9

08:00 France Services PMI (Preliminary) March 42.7 44.1 41.9

08:30 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 50.3 50.8 48.9

08:30 Germany Services PMI (Preliminary) March 54.1 54.9 51.6

09:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) March 47.9 48.2 46.6

09:00 Eurozone Services PMI (Preliminary) March 47.3 48.2 46.5

09:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) February -0.6% +0.5% +2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y February +3.2% +0.5% +2.6%

09:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln February -9.9 8.4 4.4

11:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance March -14 -16 -15

The euro fell sharply against the dollar after the data, which were released today by Markit Economics, showed that growth in the private sector in Germany has slowed, departing from the 19-month high, which was recorded in January, reflecting a decline in production and slower growth in the services sector. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted composite index, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector declined in March to 51, up from 53.3 in February, showing at the same time, the lowest in the last three months. Furthermore, it became known that the index of business activity in the services sector unexpectedly fell to 51.6 from 54.7 in February. Note that according to forecasts, the index would rise to the level of 55 .. Meanwhile, add the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell this month to reach 48.9, up from 50.3 in February, and the consensus forecast at 50.5.

However, despite this decline, the currency was able to recover most of the losses, helped by the positive results of the Spanish auction. Note that today Spain sold bonds worth 4.513 billion euros against the target range of 3-4 billion euros. Yield of 10, 5 and 2-year securities fell. We also add that the Spanish Treasury sold bonds with a term expiration in 2023 in the amount of 2.33 billion euros of bonds expiring in 2018, in the amount of 1.03 billion euros of securities with a term expiration in 2015 in the amount of 1.16 billion euro. Average yield of 10-year bonds was 4,898% against prev. 4.917%, 5-year bonds - 3.557% against prev. 3.572%, and 2-year bonds - 2.275% against prev. 2.632%.

Meanwhile, EU officials continue to hope for positive developments in Cyprus in the coming weekend, despite growing uncertainty. Recall that on Tuesday, the local banks have re-opened. Also of interest is a recent survey, according to which 70% of the island's population would like to leave part of the eurozone.

The pound rose sharply against the dollar, after a report submitted by the Office for National Statistics showed that retail sales increased significantly in the last month, while the amount of government borrowing was much lower than expected, providing a welcome boost for the head of the Treasury, George Osborne, after he was forced to admit that in the coming years growth will be weaker, and the borrowing increase. According to a report by the end of February, retail sales including automotive fuel rose 2.1%. Note that the rate of increase was much stronger than the 0.5% that economists expected. Recall that in the previous month, sales fell by 0.6%. In addition, it was reported that with the exception of motor fuel, sales increased by 1.9%, compared with the average forecast at 0.6%. In annual terms, retail sales excluding automotive fuel rose 3.3%, compared with forecasts of 1.2% growth. Sales, including fuel, increased by 2.6%, while expected to grow by 0.5%.

New Zealand Dollar rate increased significantly while still achieving maximum value for this

month. Support of the New Zealand currency have published data on the eve of New Zealand's GDP. The data showed that by the end of the 4th quarter rose by 1.5% qoq and 3.0% yoy. Average forecasts point to the growth rate of 0.9% and 2.3% respectively. Stronger data strengthened the confidence of market participants that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will not reduce the interest rate, which currently stands at 2.50%.

Value of the yen rose sharply, helped by comments Governor of the Bank of Japan Kuroda, who noted that the stability of the exchange rate - the sphere of responsibility of the Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, he added that the Bank of Japan buying foreign bonds can be seen as an intervention. He also expressed his strong belief in the need of qualitative and quantitative easing policy. As for the currency, he added that the yen is still going through a correction phase after excessive growth following the financial crisis, and the correction of an excessive strengthening of the yen after helping to fight deflation. In addition, he said that there is no concern about the "bubble" in the Japanese market assets, and it is highly desirable to achieve the inflation target of 2% in 2 years.

EUR / USD: during the European session the pair fell to $ 1.2880, but later rose to $ 1.2928

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5208

USD / JPY: during the European session the pair fell to Y95.06

At 12:30 GMT, Canada will report on changes in the volume of retail sales and the change in retail sales excluding auto sales for January. Also, this time in the U.S., there are data on the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits in March. At 13:00 GMT the U.S. will provide an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in March. At 14:00 GMT the United States will report on the volume of sales in the secondary market for February, and will provide the manufacturing index, the Philadelphia Fed in March. At 23:00 GMT Australia will release the index of leading economic indicators from the Conference Board in January.

21.03.2013 12:00


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  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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