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12.02.2013 07:06

Asian session: The yen rallied from an almost three-year low against the dollar

00:00 China Bank holiday -

00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance January 0% 0% -4%

00:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence January 3 3

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence January 39.2 40.5 43.3

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Households January 39.0 43.1

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y January -21.3% -26.1%


The yen rallied from an almost three-year low against the dollar as technical indicators signaled its decline was too rapid before Group of 20 finance chiefs meet this week. The Japanese currency’s 14-day relative strength index against the dollar was at 27 yesterday, below the 30 level that some traders see as a signal an asset has fallen too rapidly and may be due to reverse course. Against the euro, it was 33.

The yen yesterday plunged by the most in more than two weeks after Haruhiko Kuroda, a potential contender for BOJ governor, said additional monetary stimulus could be justified for 2013. U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Lael Brainard said in Washington yesterday she supports efforts in Japan to end deflation and “reinvigorate growth. It will be important that structural reforms accompany macro economic policies to achieve these goals.”

She also said that G-20 nations need to “refrain from competitive devaluation.” G-20 finance chiefs and central bankers are due to meet in Moscow from Feb. 15-16.

The euro weakened ahead gross domestic product data for the currency bloc. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey estimate euro-area GDP fell 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three-month period, when it declined 0.1 percent. The European Union’s statistics office will release the figures on Feb. 14.

South Korea’s won fluctuated after North Korea said it conducted a nuclear test.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell $ 1.3375.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5645-65.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, retreating from the previous day's high.


There is a full calendar Tuesday, getting underway at 0645GMT, when ECB Governing Council member Erkki Liikanen is slated to give a speech on  structural reform an FIN-FSA conference, in Helsinki. At 0700GMT, the Indonesia Bank Indonesia rate decision is expected. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is set to appear in a discussion on EMU in Helsinki. The first data release of the session is expected at 0745GMT, with the release of the French December Current account data. EU Finance ministers are set to gather in Brussels for the regular monthly Ecofin meeting. At 0830GMT, the Swedish Riksbank monetary policy meeting outcome is expected. Consensus is for no change, keeping rates at 1%, although some look for a 25 bps cut.

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