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29.10.2012 13:15

European session: the euro down

09:30 United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals, bln September -0.4 0.6 1.7
09:30 United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals September 47.7 48.5 50.0
12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m September +0.1% +0.5% +0.4%
12:30 U.S. Personal spending September +0.5% +0.6% +0.8%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m September +0.1% +0.1% +0.1%
12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y September +1.6% +1.7% +1.7%
13:00 Germany CPI, m/m (preliminary) October 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
13:00 Germany CPI, y/y (preliminary) October +2.0% +1.9% +2.0%

The euro approached a two-week low against the dollar ahead of the meeting of prime ministers of Italy and Spain, which will discuss a plan to rescue the region. Also on such dynamics affect data that showed how the crisis affects the economy of the single currency bloc. According to today's report, the level of retail sales in Spain fell 11% in September, compared with last year. The euro fell to a two-week low against the yen as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble rejected the restructuring of Greek debt. Note that the euro has appreciated by 0.3% against the dollar this month amid that European officials are waiting for treatment in Spain for financial assistance, which may eventually help draw a line under the debt crisis raging in the region. European policymakers are also waiting for the report, which will show the progress of Greece in achieving the internationally agreed development goals, which were developed by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the ECB.
The dollar and the yen strengthened as signs of a global economic downturn increased the demand for refuge assets.
At the same time, strengthening of the yen has been limited, as many market participants expect the Bank of Japan's policy makers meeting to be held tomorrow and will be able to shed light on the future policy of the country. Also note that the Bank of Japan board members face pressure due to the fact that the presented last week data showed that consumer prices fell again, fixing the fifth decline in a row. Against this background, many analysts expect that the policy of the bank will announce the introduction of an additional stimulus that support flagging growth.
The Australian dollar fell against the decline of Asian stocks and growing concern over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, which has undermined demand for higher-yielding assets. Note also that the currency losses were limited as traders are awaiting the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate, which will be announced at the meeting next week.
The pound weakened against the dollar after a report showed that house prices in England and Wales fell in October, noting the fourth consecutive decline. It is learned that house prices fell by 0.1% in September and 0.4% from a year earlier. At the same time, other data showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose to 50,000 last month from 47,700 in August, but it has not helped the currency recover their lost ground.

EUR/USD: during the session the pair fell, setting the minimum at $ 1.2385, but is now showing a slight recovery
GBP/USD: Trading in the exchange rate dropped significantly, setting the minimum at $ 1.6027, near which is now
USD/JPY: the exchange rate during the session shows a slight decrease

At 23:30 GMT Japan will release data on changes in the level of household spending and preliminary data on industrial production for September. Also during this time will be published data on the unemployment rate for September.

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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