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18.10.2012 06:22

Asian session: The yen touched the weakest level in a month



00:30 Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence Quarter III -2 -2

02:00 China GDP y/y Quarter III +7.6% +7.4% +7.4%

02:00 China Industrial Production y/y September +8.9% +9.0% +9.2%


The yen touched the weakest level in a month as Asian stock gains and optimism European Union leaders meeting today in Brussels will take steps toward resolving the euro area’s crisis curbed demand for haven assets. France’s President Francois Hollande called on the EU to press ahead on forming a banking union, provide economic help to countries that rein in budget deficits, and show investors that Greece will be able to stay in the euro zone if it keeps its commitments.

Japan’s currency slid versus all 16 major counterparts as expectations increased the country’s central bank will boost stimulus measures at a meeting on Oct. 30. In Japan, central bank board members will release updated economic projections for the 2012 and 2013 fiscal years at month-end, along with the first set of forecasts for the 12 months beginning in April 2014. The estimates will probably show consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rising less than 1 percent, people familiar with the matter said, on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private. That would mark a failure for the Bank of Japan (8301) in meeting its 1 percent inflation goal.

U.S. government debt fell yesterday after Commerce Department figures showed new home construction surged to the highest level in four years, reducing demand for the relative safety of Treasuries. A report today will probably show initial jobless claims in the world’s biggest economy rose to 365,000 last week from 339,000 in the previous period, according to the median forecast among 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Australian dollar strengthened after China’s statistics bureau said today gross domestic product rose 7.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a year earlier, matching the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the report was released. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to the previous day's low.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.6120-45.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y79.20, updating monthly high.

A full calendar ahead on Thursday, with the main event later in the day as EU leaders meet in Brussels for their latest Summit, with Spain, Greece and plans for deeper economic and monetary union likely to be the dominant topics. Also ahead of the leaders Summit, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn is slated to participate at the ECMI annual conference, also in Brussels. Also scheduled for 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in the German parliament on upcoming EU summit, in Berlin. UK data gets underway at 0830GMT, with the dominant release the official September retail sales numbers. Also at 0830GMT, the September CML gross mortgage lending data and the September SMMT car production numbers are released. US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the Initial claims data for the October 13 week likely to be the main release. U.S. 13-October Initial Jobless Claims. At 1400GMT, the October Philadelphia Fed Survey is expected. Also at 1400GMT, the September Leading Indicator will hit screens.

Market Focus

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  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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