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04.07.2012 08:19

Asian session: The euro snapped a gain

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) May -0.2% +0.3% +0.5%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y May +1.0% +3.3%


The euro snapped a gain from yesterday ahead of a Spanish bond sale tomorrow and before a meeting of the European Central Bank, at which economists project policy makers will cut interest rates. The ECB will probably lower its main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point to 0.75 percent tomorrow, the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg survey showed.

Spain is scheduled to auction three-, four- and 10-year debt tomorrow. The nation’s benchmark 10-year bond yielded 6.25 percent yesterday, compared with a euro-era high of 7.29 percent reached June 18.

The 17-nation currency failed to extend an advance from yesterday versus the yen before data forecast to confirm European services and manufacturing industries shrank. London-based Markit Economics is likely to say today that a final reading on its euro-area composite index was unchanged at 46 last month from May, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That’s the lowest since June 2009 and below the 50 level that signals expansion of services and manufacturing output.

The dollar touched a two-month low versus its New Zealand counterpart on speculation a U.S. report tomorrow will show job growth slowed. In the U.S., companies probably added 100,000 jobs in June, the smallest gain since August, a Bloomberg poll showed before ADP Employer Services releases the figure tomorrow.

The International Monetary Fund said additional monetary easing may be needed in the world’s largest economy. “Further easing” by the Fed might be needed “if the situation was to deteriorate,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters in Washington yesterday.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair receded from yesterday's high.

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell slightly.

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell.


EMU data at 0900GMT includes retail trade and the third estimate of Q1 GDP, while at the same time, German Finance Minister Wolfgang

Schaeuble presents a new postal stamp, in Berlin.  Also in Europe today, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso is due to deliver a speech at the "Europe in 2012 and its challenges" conference, in Mont Ste Odile (France). In the UK at 0828GMT, the Markit/CIPS Services PMI for June is due and is seen slipping to 52.7 from 53.3 last month. Markets on Wednesday will obviously be thinned-out by the Independence Day holiday in the US today.

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