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16.04.2012 07:44

Forex: Weekly review


On Monday the euro rose against the U.S. dollar against the announcement of the fact that Spain will cut costs further E10 billion in the focus of market participants are data on the trade balance of Germany, which will be published. The data may show a fall in exports in February. According to a preliminary survey of economists, exports from the eurozone's largest economy, Germany is likely to decline by 1.2% in February compared with the previous month, when the index grew by 2.4%. The Canadian dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart after the Bank of Canada said that the spring survey of business sector reflects the optimism. The yen rose against all of its major peers as data showing Japan returned to a current-account surplus and tensions over a North Korean rocket launch bolstered the allure of the currency as an investment haven.

On Tuesday the yen rose for a fifth day versus the dollar and the euro after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. recovery is far from complete, spurring demand for haven amid bets the central bank will add stimulus. The euro fell to the lowest level in a month against the yen before Italy auctions bonds this week amid concern the region’s debt crisis is spreading. Italy will sell 11 billion euros ($14.4 billion) of bills, followed by an offering of debt due from 2015 to 2023.

On Wednesday the euro strengthened from a seven- week low against the yen as Spain’s bonds climbed after a board member of the European Central Bank indicated it may buy the nation’s debt to reduce borrowing costs. The yen weakened against all but one of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will add to monetary easing later this month. Britain’s pound strengthened after a report showed U.K. retail sales rose in March. It advanced 0.3 percent to $1.5903, and climbed as much as 0.5 percent, the most since March 30. Retail sales at U.K. stores open at least 12 months, measured by value, gained 1.3 percent from a year earlier, after sliding 0.3 percent in February, the London-based British Retail Consortium said.

On Thursday the dollar fell versus most major counterparts as data showed the most Americans since January filed for jobless benefits last week, supporting the argument that monetary policy should stay stimulative to spur growth. The euro strengthened versus the dollar as Italy’s 10-year bonds rose for a second day, pushing yields down from an almost two-month high of 5.73 percent reached. The yen dropped versus major peers as Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said policy makers will “pursue powerful easing”. The pound fell as a result of published data on the trade balance. Sharp fall in exports to countries outside the EU in February, partly because of falling car exports in January increased the trade deficit.

On Friday the euro dropped against most of its major counterparts amid bets the European Central Bank won’t restart its government bond-purchase program even as Spanish credit-default swaps rose to a record. Euro slid after a report showed China’s economy expanded less than analysts forecast, adding to bets global growth is slowing. The British pound fell against the dollar after a report showed that producer prices in Britain rose again in March, confirming the stability of the inflationary pressures in the economy. Prices of output rose 0.6% m / m, exceeding the average forecast of 0.5%.Prices rose at the entrance of 1.9%, exceeding the forecast of 1.4%.

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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