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03.04.2012 08:04

Asian session: The dollar declined against most of its major peers

 

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI March 48.4 58.0

01:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings, YoY Februar 0.0% +0.2% +0.7%

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) February +0.3% +0.2% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y February +2.7% +1.9%

04:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%

04:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement


The dollar declined against most of its major peers as signs of recovery in the U.S. economy sapped demand for the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency. The greenback held a decline versus the New Zealand dollar before a government report forecast to show U.S. factory orders rebounded in February, which would follow figures yesterday that signaled an acceleration in manufacturing.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release today minutes of its March 13 meeting when policy makers raised their assessment of the economy while repeating that “exceptionally low” interest rates may be needed through late 2014. The bank bought $2.3 trillion of debt under two rounds of so-called quantitative easing, or QE, from December 2008 to June 2011.

Australia’s currency reversed gains after the nation’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its overnight cash target unchanged at 4.25 percent for a third month today, after reducing borrowing costs twice in the last quarter of 2011.

The yen rose amid speculation traders pared bets against the currency. The scale of yen weakness may be overdone, setting the stage for the currency to rally, strategists at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., including Derek Halpenny, European head of currency research, wrote in an April foreign-exchange outlook. The dollar-yen rate is likely to go back to and possibly below the 80 level, according to the report published yesterday.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain to $1.3350.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.6020-$1.6045.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y81.55.


On Tuesday core-European data includes German car registrations data, although scheduled releases sees EMU Q4 GDP and February PPI data. UK data starts at 0830GMT Tuesday with the release of the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI for March. US data includes February auto sales results through the day, where domestic-made light vehicle sales are expected to rise to an 11.5 million annual rate after warmer-than-usual weather resulted in solid readings in the previous two months. At 1345GMT, the ISM-NY Business Index is due, while at 1400GMT, factory new orders are expected to rise 1.5% in February. Durables orders were  already reported up 2.2% on rebounds in a number of components after sharp January declines. Focus shifts to the Fed later in the session with the 1800GMT release of the latest FOMC minutes.

03.04.2012 07:41

Forex: Monday’s review

Market Focus

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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