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15.03.2012 08:02

Forex: Wednesday's review

The dollar strengthened to an 11- month high against the yen after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook for U.S. growth, reducing expectations the central bank will begin a third round of bond purchases. The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday it expects “moderate economic growth” and predicted the U.S. unemployment rate “will decline gradually.”

The yen fell for a second day versus the dollar as the extra yield received for holding Treasury two-year notes compared with Japanese debt increased to the most since July. The extra yield investors receive from holding two-year Treasuries instead of Japanese debt widened to 24 basis points, the most since July 28, increasing the attractiveness of dollar assets. There is a “relatively high” correlation between the two-year spread and the dollar-yen exchange rate, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa has said.

Britain’s pound rallied against most of its major peers as gilt yields rose to the highest in four months.


EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair fell in $1.3030 area, showed low in $1.3000 area.


GBP/USD: the range of the yesterday's session was about 100 points ($1.5647-$ 1.5742).

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair rose, showed high on Y83.82.



At 0830GMT, the Swiss National Bank announces it's monetary policy decision. The meeting is not expected to do much beyond re-stressing its commitment to the Chf1.20 floor against the euro. The SNB is still looking for a replacement for Philippe Hildebrand, who resigned following controversy

over his wife's foreign exchange dealings. The board is therefore short one member. Thomas Jordan is the present stand-in for the role of SNB


EMU data at 1000GMT sees Q4 employment and labour costs data.

UK data at 0930GMT is limited to February car production data.

A busy US data schedule starts at 1230GMT with the Producer Price Index, weekly initial jobless claims and also the NY Fed Empire State Survey. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.5% in February after soft readings in the previous two months. After falling recently, both energy and food prices are expected to rebound in February. The core PPI is expected to rise 0.2% after the 0.4% jump in January. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 5,000 to 357,000 in the March 10 week after rising 8,000 in the previous week. Claims have remained in a tight range in recent weeks. The NY Fed Empire State

Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to a reading of 18.0 in March after jumping to a reading of 19.53 in February. This is followed at

1300GMT by the latest TICS report and then at 1345GMT by the weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index and at 1400GMT by the Philadelphia Fed index,

which is expected to rise further to a reading of 11.5 in March after rising to 10.2 in February.

15.03.2012 07:25

Stocks: Wednesday's review

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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