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02.11.2011 08:17

Forex: Tuesday’s review

The euro weakened for a third day against the dollar, touching the lowest in almost three weeks, as concern the currency region’s rescue plan will crumble and the European Central Bank will cut interest rates damped demand. The 17-nation currency fell the most in two weeks versus the yen after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou pledged to put the European Union’s latest accord to a referendum, risking pushing the country into default if rejected by voters. Papandreou’s call for a referendum and a parliamentary confidence vote raised the prospect of derailing the European bailout effort and pushing Greece into default. An opinion poll published Oct. 29 showed most Greeks believe the accord on a new bailout package and a debt writedown is negative. Group of 20 leaders gather for a Nov. 3-4 summit in Cannes, France, to discuss the debt crisis. Greece’s referendum plan poses a threat to financial stability in the region, Fitch Ratings said in a statement.
The dollar and yen strengthened as stocks slid around the world and data showed Chinese manufacturing slowed. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, gained for a third day, rising 1.2 percent to 77.416. The dollar advanced versus all of its 16 most-traded counterparts after the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said its Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in October, from 51.2 the previous month.
Australia’s dollar slid against most of its major peers after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.5 percent. It was the first cut since April 2009. Sixteen of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the move. The rest forecast no change.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell and lost two figures.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair fell and lost one and half figures.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded in range Y78.00-Y78.45.

On Wednesday UK data at 0930GMT sees just the Markit/CIPS Construction PMI for October. European events for Wednesday start at 0700GMT with the ILO measure of German unemployment. This morning also sees the release of the final manufacturing releases, including France at 0848GMT, Germany at 0853GMT and the main EMU release at 0858GMT, all of which are expected to confirm the preliminary readings.The main German unemployment data is due in the meantime, at 0855GMT and is expected to show a -10k payroll figure with the unemployment rate at a SA rate of 6.9%. US focus is the FOMC decision at 1630GMT, but US events start at 1100GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index. This is followed at 1130GMT with Challenger Layoffs and then at 1215GMT by the ADP National Employment Report. US data continues at 1400GMT with Q3 Housing Vacancies and then at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks.

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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