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01.09.2011 07:32

FOREX: Wednesday's review

The franc rose as the Swiss National Bank refrained from announcing new steps to curb its gains, after intervening or referring to the currency’s strength on the first three Wednesdays of August.
The dollar erased earlier losses against the euro as better-than-forecast economic data damped bets the Federal Reserve may take further steps to stimulate growth.
The euro fell as US Commerce Department data showed orders placed with U.S. factories rose in July by the most in four months, increasing 2.4%.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc.’s business barometer fell less than projected this month, declining to 56.5.
Data from ADP Employer Services earlier showed companies in the U.S. added 91,000 workers to payrolls in August, less than the 100,000 forecast. A government report on Sept. 2 is projected to show U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 70,000 this month from 117,000 in July.
The euro weakened today as data showed unemployment in the region held at 10% in July from the previous month.
European data starts at 0600GMT with detailed Q2 GDP data and H1 Maastricht debt data from Germany. At 0730GMT, ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark is due to take part on a panel "Europe and Global Competition", in Alpbach, Austria. This morning also sees final services PMI releases from France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the main EMU release at 0758GMT, all of which are expected to remain unrevised from the preliminary readings.
UK data starts at 0600GMT with the latest UK Nationwide House Price data is due, which is expected to be unchanged m/m for August. At 0815GMT, Bank of England Executive Director Market Paul Fisher delivers a speech at a Cambridge/IESEG Conference on crisis lessons, which is an academic/central bank conference, closed to media and sponsored by the European Central Bank. With papers being delivered on credit, liquidity risks, sovereign defaults and the like the conference is highly topical, however. The text of Fisher's speech will be released. UK manufacturing PMI for August is then released at 0830GMT and is expected to slip to a reading of 48.6 after having already contracted in July, dropping below the key 50 level. The data are raising doubts over how strongly growth will rebound in Q3 after Q2 was hit by one-off effects including the Royal Wedding and the supply side disruptions from the Japanese tsunami.
US data starts at 1230GMT with Jobless Claims, Non-farm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 7,000 to 410,000 in the August 27 week, as the impact of the Verizon strike should be diminished. Non-farm productivity is expected to be revised down to a 0.6% decline for the second quarter based on the downward revision to growth. Unit labor costs are expected to be revised up to +2.6% as a result.
ISM Index and Construction are due at 1400GMT. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.2% in July. Housing starts fell in the month, suggesting that residential building continued its downward trend. The ISM manufacturing index is expected to fall to a reading of 48.5 in August after the sharp drop in July. The regional data already released suggest strong contraction. US data continues with the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data at 1430GMT, while late data includes the 2030GMT release of M2 money supply.

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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