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08:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (July) adjusted Y/Y 2.0% 2.3% 2.1%
08:00 EU(17) M3 money supply (3 months to July) adjusted Y/Y 2.1% 2.3% 2.2%
08:30 UK GDP (Q2) revised 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
08:30 UK GDP (Q2) revised Y/Y 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts as traders awaited a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and a report forecast to show the world’s biggest economy is slowing.
The U.S. currency headed for a second weekly loss versus the euro and fell the most today against the Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar. Bernanke will speak today at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and may announce further measures to expand monetary easing. The yen rose against 15 of its 16 major peers after Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he’s resigning 14 months into the job.
“There probably won’t be immediate further stimulus but we think Bernanke will acknowledge that the Fed is absolutely ready to act if the data shows any further deterioration in the economy,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in London. “If he conveys that there is absolutely no way the Fed will allow the U.S. economy to deteriorate, and that they will use all policy tools at their disposal, then it will be risk-on and the dollar will weaken.”
EUR/USD reached $1.4450 in recovering from overnight lows on $1.4370.
GBP/USD reached resistance seen into $1.6350 ahead of reported corporate sell interest placed between $1.6380/00, with topside stops noted between $1.6405/10. Support seen into $1.6280/75, stronger between $1.6260/50 with stops below.
USD/JPY eased under Y77.00.
All week, markets have been waiting for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the annual Jackson Hole forum. The wait is over at 1400GMT. Ahead of then, at 0600GMT, Germany releases import prices for July, which are expected to come in unchanged m/m, 6.4% y/y. Also at 0600GMT, the France manufacturing investment survey is due, followed at 0800GMT by M3 data from the ECB, which is expected to come in at 2.2% with M3 lending at 2.5%. UK data sees the second estimate of Q2 GDP along with the June Index of Services data at 0830GMT. The risks are of a small downward revision to Q2 GDP, with final industrial production coming in weaker than expected, although the median forecast is for growth to remain at 0.2% q/q, 0.7% y/y.
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