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12.05.2011 07:45

Forex: Wednesday's review


Canada’s dollar dropped for the first time in four days against the greenback as crude oil fell after a report showed U.S. inventories rose to a two-year high and North American stocks declined.
The Canadian dollar weakened a day after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the government wants to avoid extreme currency fluctuations.
Crude oil for June delivery fell 4.8% to $98.90 a barrel. 
Supplies of crude in the U.S., Canada’s biggest trading partner, jumped 3.78 million barrels to 370.3 million in the week ended May 6, the Energy Department said today in a weekly report. Inventories were forecast to climb by 1.5 million barrels. The increase puts supplies at the highest level since May 8, 2009.
Canadian employers added a net 58,300 jobs in April after a decrease of 1,500 in the previous month, Statistics Canada reported last week. The median forecast of  economists was for an increase of 20,000. The jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.6%.
The nation reported a fourth straight trade surplus in March, the longest string since November 2008 and a sign that exporters are recovering from the global recession.
The surplus widened to C$627 million ($658 million), larger than the C$400 million median forecast. 
The pound gained versus the dollar and the euro after the Bank of England said it sees inflation “markedly higher” in the near term, boosting speculation that borrowing costs will rise from record low levels. 
The Bank of England left its main interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent on May 5, three days after King indicated he favors keeping borrowing costs on hold, even as inflation accelerates at twice the bank’s 2% limit. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair decreased in around $1.4200.
GBP/USD: the pair shown high above a mark $1,6500 then decreased and finished session in the field of $1,6350.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y80,60-Y81,30.

This morning also sees a series of regular reports with the IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Europe at 0730GMT and both the latest ECB Monthly Bulletin and IEA monthly oil market report at 0800GMT. EMU industrial output for March then follows, at 0900GMT. 
UK data sees Industrial Production for March at 0830GMT. Forecasts are for better UK manufacturing data, with Manufacturing output up 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y and industrial output up 0.8% m/m, 1.1% y/y. In light of the weak February monthly data, the Q1 GDP numbers entail a rebound in both manufacturing and industrial production in March. However, this data represents old news for policymakers. The April CIPS numbers suggest the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector eased in the second quarter. 
US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims and also retail sales and PPI for April. Initial jobless claims are expected to fall 44,000 to 430,000 in the May 7 week after surging in the previous week on special factors that should be reversed in the current 
week. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% in April. Industry auto sales rose slightly in the month from the previous month, while gasoline prices rose further according to AAA. Sales excluding motor vehicles are expected to be up 0.6% as well. The data will include the annual revisions already released. At 1400GMT by business inventories, which are expected to rise 0.9% in March. Factory inventories were already reported up 1.1%. The data will include the annual revisions to the retail sales data.


Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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