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04.03.2011 09:23

FOREX: Thursday's review

The euro climbed to almost four- month highs versus the dollar and yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB may raise interest rates next month to counter accelerating inflation.
“Strong vigilance is warranted,” Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt after the central bank left its main refinancing rate at 1 percent. 
An “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible,” Trichet said, adding that any increase would not necessarily be the start of a “series” of moves. 
Rising oil prices, which surged over $100 a barrel last week, and faster economic growth are fanning inflation which has already breached the ECB’s 2 percent limit for three straight months. At the same time, officials must weigh any rate increase against the risk it will exacerbate Europe’s sovereign debt crisis by tightening policy too soon.
The dollar slumped versus the euro even after a report showed initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly declined last week to the lowest level since May 2008.
Applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 20,000 to 368,000 in the week ended Feb. 26, Labor Department figures showed. Economists forecast claims would climb to 395,000. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since October 2008. 

EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair  become stronger in around $1,3970.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair  decreased in around $1,6270.
USD/JPY: on results of yesterday's session the pair become stronger in around Y82,40.

The main event for Friday is of course, the US labor market data at 1330GMT, when non-farm payrolls are expected to rise 200,000 in February following the very modest 36,000 gain in January. Private payrolls are seen up 190,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 9.1% after two straight 0.4 point drops in December and January. Hourly earnings are expected to post a 0.2% rise following the 0.4% January gain, while the average workweek is forecast to rise to 34.3 hours in February. Also  from the US, at 1500GMT, factory new orders are expected to jump 2.0% in January, as durable goods orders were already reported up 2.7%. 
Also at  1500GMT, the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for February is due. 

04.03.2011 08:05

Stocks: Thursday's review

Market Focus

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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