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The euro rose against the majority of its most-traded peers before a policy decision by the European Central Bank this week, at which President Jean-Claude Trichet may signal a readiness to increase borrowing costs. Bernanke may say that the Fed will keep rates near zero when he testifies to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
“As long as the Fed retains its stance, the interest-rate differentials will move against the dollar,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “There’s a lot of bullish sentiment that Trichet will move to a more hawkish stance and discuss removing the stimulus. That’s one of the key reasons for euro strength.”
The euro maintained gains versus the dollar after a report showed inflation stayed above the ECB’s 2% target for a second month in January. Euro-region consumer prices rose 2.3 percent from a year earlier, the fastest since October 2008, the European Union’s statistics office said today.
EUR/USD: tested Friday peaks around $1.3830/40.
GBP/USD: from $1.6070 gained up to $1.6240.
USD/JPY: traded within Y81.60-Y81.95 range.
US data starts at 1330GMT with the ISM-NY Business Index Personal Income & Expenditures data and the PCE Price Index. Personal income is expected to rise 0.4% in January, as payrolls rose only 36,000 and the workweek fell to 34.2 hours, offset by a 0.4% jump in hourly earnings. PCE is expected to rise 0.4%, as retail sales were up 0.3%, both including and excluding auto sales. The core PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2%.
US data continues at 1430GMT with the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index. Then, at 1445GMT, the Chicago PMI is expected to fall to a reading of 68.0 in February. Other regional data already released have suggested modest expansion. Further US data includes the 1500GMT release of NAR Pending Home Sales as well as the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index
and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey both at 1530GMT.
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